Estimates of the impact of a future influenza pandemic in China
Identifieur interne : 001107 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001106; suivant : 001108Estimates of the impact of a future influenza pandemic in China
Auteurs : Hongjie Yu ; Luzhao Feng ; Zhibin Peng ; Zijian Feng ; David K. Shay ; Weizhong YangSource :
- Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses [ 1750-2640 ] ; 2009.
Abstract
Url:
DOI: 10.1111/j.1750-2659.2009.00093.x
PubMed: 21462394
PubMed Central: 4986579
Affiliations:
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<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Estimates of the impact of a future influenza pandemic in China</title>
<author><name sortKey="Yu, Hongjie" sort="Yu, Hongjie" uniqKey="Yu H" first="Hongjie" last="Yu">Hongjie Yu</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Feng, Luzhao" sort="Feng, Luzhao" uniqKey="Feng L" first="Luzhao" last="Feng">Luzhao Feng</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Peng, Zhibin" sort="Peng, Zhibin" uniqKey="Peng Z" first="Zhibin" last="Peng">Zhibin Peng</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Feng, Zijian" sort="Feng, Zijian" uniqKey="Feng Z" first="Zijian" last="Feng">Zijian Feng</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Shay, David K" sort="Shay, David K" uniqKey="Shay D" first="David K." last="Shay">David K. Shay</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Yang, Weizhong" sort="Yang, Weizhong" uniqKey="Yang W" first="Weizhong" last="Yang">Weizhong Yang</name>
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<series><title level="j">Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses</title>
<idno type="ISSN">1750-2640</idno>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><bold>Background </bold>
The next influenza pandemic will create a surge in demand for health resources in China, with its current population of >1·3 billion persons and under‐developed medical care and public health system. However, few pandemic impact data are available for China.</p>
<p><bold>Objectives </bold>
We estimated the effects of a future influenza pandemic in China by examining pandemic scenarios of varying severity and described the time distribution of cases during a first wave.</p>
<p><bold>Methods </bold>
We used a Monte‐Carlo simulation model and death rates, hospitalizations and outpatient visits for 1918‐ and 1968‐like pandemic scenarios and data from the literature or experts’ opinion to estimate four health outcomes: deaths, hospitalizations, outpatient medical visits and clinical illness for which medical care was not sought. For each of the two scenarios we estimated outcomes by week using a normal distribution.</p>
<p><bold>Results </bold>
We estimated that a 1968 scenario in China would result in 460 000–700 000 deaths, 1·94–2·27 million hospitalizations, 111–117 million outpatient visits and 192–197 million illnesses for which medical care was not sought. Fifty‐two percent of hospitalizations occurred during the two‐peak weeks of the first wave. We estimated that patients at high‐risk of influenza complications (10–17% of the population) would account for 61–75% of all deaths. For a 1918 scenario, we estimated that 4·95–6·95 million deaths, 20·8–22·7 million hospitalizations and 101–108 million outpatient visits could occur.</p>
<p><bold>Conclusion </bold>
Even a 1968 pandemic scenario will pose substantial challenges for the medical and public health system in China, and planning to manage these challenges is essential.</p>
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<tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Feng, Luzhao" sort="Feng, Luzhao" uniqKey="Feng L" first="Luzhao" last="Feng">Luzhao Feng</name>
<name sortKey="Feng, Zijian" sort="Feng, Zijian" uniqKey="Feng Z" first="Zijian" last="Feng">Zijian Feng</name>
<name sortKey="Peng, Zhibin" sort="Peng, Zhibin" uniqKey="Peng Z" first="Zhibin" last="Peng">Zhibin Peng</name>
<name sortKey="Shay, David K" sort="Shay, David K" uniqKey="Shay D" first="David K." last="Shay">David K. Shay</name>
<name sortKey="Yang, Weizhong" sort="Yang, Weizhong" uniqKey="Yang W" first="Weizhong" last="Yang">Weizhong Yang</name>
<name sortKey="Yu, Hongjie" sort="Yu, Hongjie" uniqKey="Yu H" first="Hongjie" last="Yu">Hongjie Yu</name>
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